2012 is another major election year in Delaware with races for Governor, U.S Senate, U.S. House of Representatives, and Wilmington mayor all on the ballot along with races for the Delaware State House and Senate. We conclude our Year in Review email forum series by asking our panel of political observers how they view the upcoming campaign cycle. Today, they weigh in with their thoughts, submitted via email, on the election races to watch in 2012.
[caption id="attachment_3638" align="alignnone" width="130" caption="Rich Collins"]
[caption id="attachment_3638" align="alignnone" width="130" caption="Charlie Copeland"]
[caption id="attachment_3638" align="alignnone" width="130" caption="Sam Hoff"]
[caption id="attachment_3638" align="alignnone" width="130" caption="Jason Melrath"]
[caption id="attachment_3638" align="alignnone" width="130" caption="John Watson"]
What Delaware election race is the one to watch in 2012?
The race for Governor will be the most interesting in 2012. Despite virtually no real accomplishments for the Markell administration to point to, most observers think he will win re-election in a walk. Does the Republican party have the ability to capitalize on what could be a historic opportunity?
—Rich Collins,Executive Director of the Positive Growth Alliance
The City of Wilmington is running a 2012 fiscal year operating deficit of $7.4 million or over 5% of the budget (Up from around $2.5 million or 3.6% in 2006). This money is paid directly to the City from the State's coffers (from a $20 State filing fee from Corporations and LLCs. The surcharge was established at the City's request). The State has been making these cash payments to Wilmington since 2004.
The City has been run by one political party with almost no change since 1972. In 2012, Mayor Baker will not be running for re-election due to term limits. There are a half dozen Democrats potentially running to take his place. There is also Wilmington's sole Republican City Councilman, Michael Brown, who is running for that seat. So, for the first time in several decades, there is a chance for a real race for Mayor of Wilmington and substantive changes in the management of the City. In no uncertain terms, it will be a tough electoral environment in Delaware for Republicans. I cannot remember an incumbent Vice President, running for re-election, losing his home state. However, Wilmington is spiraling down, and there will be a competitive opportunity for the Mayor's office. It will be a race to watch.
—Charlie Copeland,former state senator and 2008 GOP candidate for Lt. Governor
The presidential and gubernatorial elections are the ones to watch in 2012.
Unfortunately, because of the unwise passage of SB 89, Delaware will not run its presidential primary until the last Tuesday in April. That’s far too late in the process, despite the move within the Republican Party to proportional delegate selection for contests held from January through April. After making waves in the last two election cycles, Delaware’s primary will be an afterthought, meaning that the Republican presidential nominee will be known by then.
In the general election race, President Barack Obama will win the state’s popular and electoral vote, though not nearly as handily as he did in the 2008 race. The governor’s race will be likewise be closer than some anticipate, but Jack Markell will be reelected by at least a 4 percent popular vote advantage.
—Sam Hoff, Delaware State University political science professor
The most competitive and interesting race will be for the U.S. House. The race is key nationally as Democrats attempt to regain the majority in the House of Representatives. Democrats cannot do that if they fail to defend this seat. Congressman John Carney is in his first term, and as with other races, he is at his most vulnerable in his first race for reelection. The Republicans know this, which is why they have recruited a good candidate to face him, New Castle County Council President and former State Representative Tom Kovach.
Congressman Carney has continued his predecessor’s practice of being a “Quiet Campaigner.” Carney is respected, reasonable, and he tries to chart a moderate course in Delaware politics, which normally angers the left and the right. He doesn’t rock the boat or give fiery speeches. The question is whether he has left a good impression with the voters, enough for them to return him for a second term.
Meanwhile, Kovach has tried to be all things to all voters in his party. He has been a Castle Republican one day, and on the next, he is a Tea Party Republican. Whether or not this vacillation will earn him a serious primary challenge from the Tea Party is unclear. It is also unclear if Kovach can win a general election held in November. Mr. Kovach was elected to the General Assembly in December of 2008 in a special election, and then was defeated in November 2010 general election. He was elected to his current position this past spring in a special election to replace Paul Clark as Council President. So his two electoral victories have come from electorates much smaller than what he will face in November of next year.
—Jason Melrath,Vice President, Progressive Democrats for Delaware
On the national scene, we have a rocky road to the White House for the Republican Party hopefuls. Almost every week there is a different frontrunner. And even former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who has lots of negative baggage, was selected for the top spot in some polls. Who's next? Michele Bachmann again?
On the home front, it won't be a smooth ride in the Wilmington mayoral race. We have recent official announcements from Representative Dennis Williams (D) and Republican City Councilman Mike Brown. The long list of candidates also includes Pastor "D", Derrick Johnson, and Democratic State Representative Bob Marshall, both with impressive records of community service. The deck is stacked in favor of the Democrats with 70 percent of the city's registered voters, while the Republicans only have 12 percent. Mike Brown is a very strong GOP candidate, but Representative Williams, a retired Wilmington Police detective, who helped defeat the city in the eminent domain controversy will be hard to defeat at the polls.
Elsewhere, the race between Congressman John Carney and New Castle County President Tom Kovach is sure to make some headlines and Wilmington City Councilman Charles Potter will be running for Representative Dennis Williams’ seat. So there is much to watch during Delaware's 2012 election cycle.
—John Watson Former WILM radio talk-show host