Delaware released its updated Climate Action Plan, a follow-up to the original one delivered in 2021.
It projects the state’s average temperature will increase two to four degrees by 2050, along with increased flooding along the coast and more precipitation in the coming decades.
The report's primary objective its to offset the harshest impacts of climate change by getting Delaware to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Between 2005 to 2021, Delaware's emissions decreased nearly 24 percent.
A net-zero goal means that any greenhouse gasses emitted by 2050 would be compensated for by taking emissions out of the atmosphere, according to DNRECs Division of Climate, Coastal, and Energy Department Administrator Susan Love.
In Delaware, she added, the top three polluting sectors are vehicles, industrial activities, and energy. She noted electricity is the largest contributor to Delaware's drop in carbon emissions since 2005, which the state's report attributes to power plants switching from coal to natural gas, along with new greenhouse gas standards and state initiatives.
On the state's current track, the report says it can decrease emissions 54% by 2050. The reductions come primarily from deployment of clean energy, reduced use of fossil fuels in buildings, and electrification of vehicles.
The report is meant to be adaptable to new technologies or state needs, Love said. Its predictions are not all inclusive, as the 54% emissions reduction projection does not factor in large-scale data center development planned in the state.
"We don't yet under understand the holistic impact of those data centers," Love said. The Climate Action Plan's modeling was mostly complete before the data center proposals came to Delaware.
According to Delaware’s report, transportation is the state’s largest emissions sector. Carbon emissions from transportation decreased by 3.5% since 2005, but it is not predicted to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
According to the Climate Action Plan, if the state continues EV incentives and tailpipe emissions standards, the state’s transportation sector can reduce carbon emissions by another 38 percent. Delaware has about 1 million registered vehicles. Between 2020 to 2025, the number of electric vehicles in the state increased approximately 12,000.
Three years ago, Delaware followed other states to adopt the Advanced Clean Car II program, which mandated that 82% of new cars and trucks imported to the state for sale be zero-emission vehicles by 2032. The mandate received pushback during public comment periods. And when when Gov. Matt Meyer assumed office last year, he announced plans to walk the rule back.
Delaware Secretary of Natural Resources and Environmental Control Gregory Patterson said the governor supports increased adoption of electric vehicles to meet Delaware's climate goals.
"I can tell you (Gov. Meyer) wants to do it through incentives and encouragement, and just helping people understand and building out the infrastructure," Patterson said.
Love said Delaware has strong incentive programs for electric vehicles and charging stations. But the federal roll backs on tailpipe emissions standards, fuel efficiency requirements, and consumer tax credits for EVs and chargers will make progress harder.
"One thing I will also note is that we can't get we can't EV our way out of transportation emissions," she said. "A lot of work needs to be done to reduce the amount that we drive vehicles, good land use choices, mass transit, and making it easier for people to walk, bike, and roll to their destinations."
To push transportation closer to a net-zero goal by 2050, the report suggests EV education partnerships with schools. It also suggests partnering with energy companies to evaluate grid systems support.