Democrats appear headed to victory in two of Delaware’s top political races this year according to new polling data, even with help from Republicans.
Both the governor’s mansion and Delaware’s only U.S. House seat seem to be a lock for Democrats in 2016.
A new poll from University of Delaware’s Center for Political Communication shows John Carney with a 32-point lead over Republican Colin Bonini (R-Dover South) in the governor’s race.
More than a quarter of those identifying as Republican say they’ll vote for Carney over Bonini.
Despite the margin, it’s not as decisive as the wins Gov. Jack Markell (D) scored to earn his two terms. Markell beat Bill Lee by 35 percent and Jeff Cragg by 41 percent.
But UD’s Paul Brewer says that doesn’t mean there’s less of a mandate for Carney – just that Bonini may be a stronger challenger.
“I see a lot of his signs, he had a primary challenge, which maybe made him work and maybe boosted his profile a bit and he’s a state senator, so he might be a stronger candidate on paper than Cragg was," Brewer said.
In a statement released Tuesday morning, Bonini questioned the veracity of the poll, saying Delawareans are "thirsting for change."
"Obviously, it’s an uphill battle as a Republican in Delaware, but quite frankly we have not even started the bulk of the outreach portion of our campaign, so any polling at this point is premature," said Bonini. "To quote John Paul Jones, ‘I have not yet begun to fight!’”
In the U.S. House race, Lisa Blunt Rochester is also 20 points ahead of GOP nominee Hans Reigle.
The poll carries a margin of error of 3.8 percent.
Brewer says only something significant could derail Democrats path to victory.
“With a 20-30 point lead, something really big has to happen – some sort of major scandal or other big event to shake up the race. If things keep on going now then it’s a really hard landscape for both Bonini and Riegel.”
Libertarians and the Green Party candidates for both offices combine for between seven and 11 percent of the vote.