Any statewide plan that involves higher taxes, enhanced public education, new building regulations, closer coordination of government agencies, and even a study of emotions faces many hurdles before it can ever become a reality.
Such a plan, and much more besides, may be the result of the latest slew of ideas on how to adapt to rising seas from the Sea Level Rise Advisory Committee, a panel convened by Delaware’s Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control to guide the state on coping with what may be its biggest long-term environmental threat.
Following last year’s study on the state’s vulnerability to sea-level rise, which concluded that Delaware could lose up to 11 percent of its land mass and as many as 17,000 single-family homes by 2100 as ocean waters rise by 0.5 to 1.5 meters, DNREC’s Coastal Programs unit is now working on how the state might respond to that.
Officials are circulating among committee members and state officials a 20-page document containing around 60 “adaptive capacity options” that have been discussed by the committee in the last few months, and will be the basis for three public meetings around the state starting on Feb. 13.
Susan Love, a Coastal Programs planner, stressed that the options are just ideas that may be modified, expanded, approved or rejected as the document goes through stages of discussion among members of the public, state and local officials, and the business community in coming months.
One version of the document released in early January has already seen changes, and no doubt there will be more before a final set of proposals is submitted to DNREC Secretary Collin O’Mara sometime in the summer, Love said.
But some of the options look likely to become the blueprint for how business and government work together to respond to sea-level rise; how public and private sectors pay for adaptation to rising seas, and whether ordinary people choose to build their houses higher or simply retreat in the face of rising waters.
Panel weighs state's options to adapt to sea-level rise
Among the scenarios being discussed is how state government should deal with massive costs for cleaning up the one-quarter of Delaware’s heavy industrial areas that the vulnerability study says could be inundated by rising seas.
Abandonment of industrial properties could lead to bankruptcies, leaving the state to clean up the mess, the new document warns, proposing that funding be set aside for that purpose.
“Creation of a financial assurance program would ensure a designated funding stream for cleanup of these sites, and provide certainty to both the state and businesses about the process to follow in the event of abandonment of an industrial site,” the document says.
It also urges policymakers to consider that retreating from rising waters may be a better idea than trying to protect against them. A statewide plan identifying areas where retreat would be the best way of adaptation would allow governments, businesses and private citizens to make long-term plans about where to build homes, businesses or infrastructure, the document said.
To help pay the huge adaptation bill, taxes may have to rise on hotels and vacation rentals. The Public Accommodations Tax, which currently adds 8 percent to the cost of a hotel room, may have to increase, or more than the current one-eighth of its revenue could be used for beach replenishment and other coastal protection.
The cost of buying land, elevating buildings or flood-proofing structures could also be met with a revolving loan fund to provide low-interest loans to local governments, businesses and individuals for adaptation projects, the document said.
The state might also consider imposing a coastal tax or user fee to help pay for adaptation costs, and should conduct a cost-benefit analysis, including the economic benefits of tourism, to evaluate ‘retreat’ and ‘protection’ measures including the return on investment from coastal projects, the paper said.
Whatever means of adaptation is chosen, the cost will be huge, said Susan Love of DNREC. The costs – financial, social and environmental – could result from moving houses to higher ground or building them on pilings to avoid the rising waters. Or it could reflect the cost of inundation if some communities fail to act.
Officials don’t know whether action would be more expensive than inaction but it’s clear that both are extremely costly, Love said. “All these things have enormous costs,” she said.
Adapting to higher seas could be paid for by local taxes or by individuals, businesses, or communities, she said. “It doesn’t necessarily have to be funded with taxpayer money.”
Most decisions about what approach to take to address rising seas will be made at a local level, Love said, emphasizing that the state is not in the business of dictating local responses.
“We are not telling anyone anywhere that they must retreat,” she said.
Rather, state planners would be giving local communities the data, regulations and policies that will allow them to make adaptation decisions, Love said.
Challenges of making long-term projections
Determining which areas will be inundated – itself a significant undertaking – would allow state agencies to plan for how long roads, bridges and sewers need to last; help planners identify tracts for the inland migration of wetlands, and leave businesses better informed about where to locate factories or transportation links, the document says.
It also raises the possibility of requiring sellers of real estate to disclose the exposure of their properties to rising seas, and ways of mitigating it.
“Providing this information may further impact a currently depressed housing market but it would provide the necessary information to buyers so they can make more informed decisions about short-term versus long-term risks,” the paper says.
The impact of rising seas on home buyers and builders is just one of many effects that are very hard to anticipate given that the water-level projection is almost a century away, said Keith Rudy, an engineer with New Castle-based Landmark Science & Engineering, and a member of the Sea Level Rise Advisory Committee.
“It’s very difficult and complicated to project what’s going to happen in 80 years from now,” Rudy told DFM News. “Pretty much everybody on the committee takes it seriously but the planning horizon is so far out.”
The long-term projection has been “challenging” for some committee members, Rudy said. “In some cases there has been heated debate,” he said.
Some committee members have objected to DNREC’s instruction to consider only three scenarios -- that seas will rise by 0.5 meter; 1 meter, and 1.5 meters – arguing that the outcome could be either higher or lower than those options, Rudy said.
He also criticized DNREC’s “bathtub” model for projecting sea-level rise, arguing that it does not take into account “landform” changes to the shape of the coastline that occur regardless of rising seas.
Still, Rudy gave DNREC credit for including a “diversity of opinion” on the 24-member committee, which has representatives from academia, local government and private environmental groups as well as state officials and private citizens.
Raising public awareness about sea-level rise
Despite the long-term projection, there are only “one or two” members of the committee who don’t believe sea-level rise is a reality, said Constance Holland, the state planning director and a member of the committee. She argued that there’s also a growing public awareness of the issue.
“People are very aware that this is happening,” she said in an interview. “I think you would really have to have your head in the sand to not know that this is an issue that Delaware is aware of.”
Raising public awareness of sea-level rise and persuading people to plan for it is an essential part of adaptation planning, and may aid the legislative process in the case of policies that require new laws, the options document says.
It proposed that education on the subject should be aimed at both seasonal and year-round residents of coastal areas, as well as at industry and business so that sea-level rise can be incorporated into long-term management plans.
Communities that are likely to be most affected should be provided with up-to-date information about vulnerability and adaptation, and residents should be made aware of how to plan for inundation of their communities, the document said.
Planners were urged to understand more about how individuals respond to the prospect of rising seas. “Currently, there are few studies about coastal residents’ opinions of adaptation actions, thresholds for action or likely emotional responses to flooding and inundation issues,” the document said.
It also argued that “fairness and social justice” should guide the allocation of funds toward victims of inundation who are least able to withstand it.
“Most of the resettlement money for those whose homes and businesses must be abandoned should go to those with the least resources to move or adapt,” it said.
Public meetings to discuss the adaptation options will be held on Feb. 13 at Cape Henlopen High School, Lewes from 4 pm to 7 pm; on Feb. 25 at the Kent County Levy Court Building, Dover, from 4 pm to 7 pm, and at another meeting in New Castle County whose time and place has yet to be announced.
