Democrat John Carney appears to be a solid frontrunner in the race for Delaware’s lone seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Two new polls out in advance of Carney’s debate with Republican Glen Urquhart at the University of Delaware Wednesday night show the former Delaware lieutenant governor with a double-digit lead over the Rehoboth developer. Wednesday night’s televised debate is presented by Delaware First Media and UD’s Center for Political Communication (CPC).
A “National Agenda” poll released Wednesday by the CPC shows Carney up 48 to 31 percent with 16 percent undecided. When the undecideds are allocated based on probable decisions, Carney’s lead widens to 60-40 percent. The UD poll surveyed 901 Delaware residents, 81 percent of them registered voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percent.
A new Public Mind poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University has Carney leading Urquhart 51 to 36 percent with 10 percent undecided in a survey of 801 likely voters. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percent.
Public Mind survey analyst Dan Cassino, a professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson, says beyond Carney's 15-point advantage, the Democrat enjoys another edge in the Fairleigh Dickinson survey with less than a month remaining in the race. “Carney is much more recognizable than Urquhart is,” said Cassino. The poll showed that “86 percent of people in Delaware know who Carney is. Urquhart’s numbers are still floating in the low 70s.”
The Public Mind Poll also found Carney’s support very strong in New Castle County, with a lead of 56 to 32 percent among voters there. Carney is holding his own in Kent and Sussex counties, where he and Urquhart are even at 43 percent apiece. Cassino believes that does not bode well for Urquhart.
“The strategy for any Republican who’s running in Delaware really has to be to run up a wide margin in the downstate counties and then stay competitive in New Castle. Urquhart simply hasn’t been able to do that, and that’s a big problem for him,” said Cassino. “If he wants to be competitive, he has to be winning Kent and Sussex counties by at least 15 points.”
David Wilson, an associate professor of political science at the University of Delaware, oversaw the UD “National Agenda” poll and agrees that Carney’s lead is “substantial.” But Wilson suggests that there is potential weakness in the depth of Carney’s support. The poll shows only 32 percent of Delawareans would be disappointed if Carney lost the race. Likewise, only 31 percent would be disappointed if Urquhart lost. “There is no real enthusiasm, connection to the Carney campaign,” said Wilson.
That could be an issue when it comes to turnout, he explained. “You have to mobilize voters. Since Urquhart has already had a primary campaign, he’s pretty much got his operation in place and he’s mobilized those voters. They’re going to come out for him again,” said Wilson. “If Carney doesn’t pull independents over in his direction, it might be a little closer. Urquhart could sneak up on him.”
The two polls disagree on the number of undecideds left to court, creating differing views of the potential impact of the Carney-Urquhart debate at the University of Delaware.
Cassino believes that with only 10 percent undecided in the Public Mind poll, Urquhart needs a strong debate performance to turn the tide. “It’s not going to be enough at this point in the race for Urquart to simply define himself and win over some of the undecided voters. He has to change some people’s minds, and that’s a much taller order.”
The UD “National Agenda” poll lists 16 percent undecided. Wilson believes Carney needs to take heed of that number and use the debate to appeal to those people if he wants to seal the deal. “You want to do the best you can to pull over the independents and the unsure voters. That’s what this kind of debate can do. It can pull people who are unsure in one direction or another."
