The six-month-long Atlantic hurricane season is underway and the National Weather Service forecasts a very active and potentially dangerous one in 2024.
Even in the busiest seasons, Delaware has historically avoided direct hits, mostly experiencing indirect blows from hurricanes.
But according to National Weather Service meteorologist Mike Lee, record-breaking warmth in the Atlantic Ocean and higher surface temperatures increase the likelihood of hurricanes or other major storms impacting the First State.
“In general, we are looking at a very high likelihood of an above-average hurricane season,” Lee said. “It’s impossible to predict this far out if Delaware will get hit or not, but the main point is that the dice are loaded right now. There’s a higher chance for more hurricanes to form based on all the different conditions, sea-surface temperatures included.”
NOAA and the National Weather Service predict the Atlantic season will produce 17 to 25 total named storms. Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes, including 4 to 7 major hurricanes.
Hurricanes form over and feed off of warm ocean waters, and Lee says the ocean is certainly warming up in the Northeast.
“One metric that we utilize to measure the warmth of water compared to what is normal is something called sea surface temperature anomalies,” Lee said. “Right now across the northeast coastline, including Delaware, sea surface temperature anomalies are about three to four degrees Celsius above average.”
This year, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center estimates that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has an 85% chance of being an above-average season, meaning more hurricanes and potentially higher impact.
Regardless of what this hurricane season holds, Lee says now is the time to prepare and make thorough emergency plans.
“Make your emergency plans now… make sure you have a list of supplies that you need to purchase,” Lee said. “We don’t want you to be scrambling in trying to figure out what you’re supposed to do when there’s a system that is within days of barreling down on you.”
