Only one statewide race has the two major party candidates within single digits of each other in the majority of public polls: the state treasurer’s race. A PublicMind poll of Delaware races released Thursday by Fairleigh Dickinson University shows that the battle between Republican Colin Bonini and Democrat Chip Flowers remains a tossup.
Days away from the election, Flowers holds a statistically insignificant lead of 42 to 41 percent with 17 percent unsure in the new poll, conducted October 20–26. The previous FDU poll, in early October, showed the two tied at 38 percent with 21 percent unsure. The new PublicMind Poll surveyed 797 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.
Flowers and Bonini say they intend to spend from now to Tuesday wooing the large pool of undecideds.
“It a combination, between now and Election Day, of turnout and persuasion," said Flowers, "because there’s a lot of people out there, as the poll shows, that are still undecided.”
“I still think the message is vitally important all the way through Election Day,” said Bonini. “It still think there’s time to reach the undecided voters."
Dan Cassino, assistant professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson and survey analyst for PublicMind, says it's possible unsure voters will not break in either direction. “Voters always do have a third option. That option is to vote for absolutely no one,” said Cassino. “We actually see a large drop off in these local races where, as voters go down the ballot, they simply don’t cast a vote for anybody in races where they haven’t heard of anyone."
Cassino believes the deciding factor could be how voters react to the other statewide races in Delaware. FDU’s PublicMind poll shows that Democrats in those races—for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, state attorney general, and state auditor, all have double-digit leads. Cassino says those numbers have the potential to change turnout on both sides.
“To the extent Democrats are saying, 'We don’t need to go out and vote because there’s such a big spread in the marquee races,' it could have a devastating effect on Chip Flowers in the treasurer’s race,” said Cassino. “That said, the opposite could also happen. Republicans, disheartened by the margins against them in races for the Senate and House, could also stay home. At this point, for both parties, in the tight races down ballot, it going to be about getting out the vote.”
Flowers is concerned that the big Democratic leads at the top of the ballot could hurt his campaign, but he believes the treasurer’s race is starting to show up on voters’ radar as Election Day approaches.
“In the last few weeks the treasurer’s race has gotten a significant amount of attention as the spread in other races gets larger and larger, and I think people are starting to look at the treasurer’s race, and the auditor’s race, and say, 'These are important offices and we need to make decisions on who will represent us in these offices.' "
Bonini also sees attention growing in the treasurer’s race down the stretch, a trend that does not surprise him at all. “In these down-ballot races, the truth is nobody pays attention until pretty late," observed Bonini, who noted he saw the same voter behavior when running for state Senate. “This is why we’re so encouraged. With the enormous [Republican] registration deficit, that fact that we are for all intents and purposes tied, is exciting. We have a real opportunity."
Other home-stretch polling results on Delaware races:
• A new poll in the U.S. Senate race between Democrat Chris Coons and Republican Christine O’Donnell from Monmouth University shows the race much closer than the latest FDU Public Mind poll. The Monmouth survey says O’Donnell trails by 10 points compared with the 21-point spread in this week’s FDU Public Mind poll. Two weeks ago, Monmouth had O’Donnell down 19 points. The Monmouth poll, conducted October 25–27, surveyed 1171 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent.
• On Delaware's U.S. House race, the Monmouth University and FDU PublicMind polls also differ greatly. PublicMind has Democrat John Carney leading Republican Glen Urquhart 53 to 36 percent with 9 percent unsure. Carney’s 17-point advantage is up from 15 points in FDU’s PublicMind poll in early October. Monmouth University poll has Carney’s lead at just 7 points. Two weeks ago, Monmouth’s polling showed Carney with a 9-point edge.
The PublicMind poll shows that 20 percent of voters still haven’t heard of Urquhart while only 7 percent haven’t heard of Carney. Cassino says the attention paid to the Coons-O’Donnell Senate race has limited Urquhart’s ability to close the gap with Carney. “There simply hasn’t been much attention paid to this race because so much spectacular news has come out of the Senate race,” said Cassino. “And that’s been a real problem for Urquhart trying to define himself."
In a statement, Urquhart communications director David Anderson says the new Monmouth University poll reflects their internal polling that shows a tighter race. Anderson added, “The polling has tightened in the last week with a new ad buy and high profile endorsements, this is going to be a close race and I would not be surprised to see Congressman-elect Urquhart. One thing I know for certain, anyone believing it is going to be a 17-point race is going to be in shock on Election Day."
Carney campaign spokesman James Allen responded to the polls in a statement. ""Our volunteers and supporters will be executing a massive get-out-the-vote effort through Tuesday night to make sure Delawareans elect a true leader who will work with Democrats and Republicans to create jobs and move Delaware forward, not a divisive extremist who advocates failed policies that will hurt families across the state,” said Allen.
• Only FDU Public Mind polled the Delaware attorney general’s and state auditor races. In the attorney general’s race, it has incumbent Democrat Beau Biden holding a 64-26 percent lead over independent Doug Campbell. That margin is unchanged from early October.
• In the state auditor’s race, Democrat Richard Korn has cut into incumbent Republican Thomas Wagner’s lead. The new FDU PublicMind poll shows Wagner leading 46-36 percent. Wagner led by 15 points in early October.