Welcome to American politics in the 21st century, Delaware. The First State’s 2010 primary election and its aftermath is being covered by the national media in a manner previously not seen in these parts. Several trends have emerged from the discussion and debate about who won and why both nationally and locally.
THE RESULTS
Even though the last wave of polling before Tuesday’s primary revealed a major shift in voter sentiment toward the candidates for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate, Christine O’Donnell’s defeat of Delaware icon and nine-term U.S. House member Michael Castle was startling. Many of the factors which propelled O’Donnell’s victory were evident in other campaigns as well. On the other hand, certain conditions were idiosyncratic to individual races.
ANTI-GOVERNMENT ANGER
Though recent polls showed that Delaware voters support President Obama and the direction of the country to a higher degree than the American public as a whole, that is apparently not true for the subsample that comprises Republican voters in Delaware. Anger toward the national government for ignoring citizens’ concerns and for excessive spending was evident in exit polling done by this writer and in interviews conducted by various media outlets. In a brief discussion with one of Christine O’Donnell’s supporters at the Elk’s Lodge in Dover on Tuesday evening, one word was used to describe the message of her campaign: freedom. One should note that freedom may be conceived in diverse ways, as in to pursue liberty or escape oppression. But such details are apparently not of concern to O’Donnell’s legion of followers.
INCUMBENTS HANG ON
The anti-government views of many Delaware voters should not be confused with a reflexive anti-incumbent, throw-the-bums-out mentality. While political veterans such as New Castle County Sheriff Michael Walsh and State Representative Hazel Plant (2nd District) were defeated in Democratic primaries, incumbents prevailed in all other State House and Senate primaries as well as in the race for Sussex County Recorder of Deeds.
A WHIFF OF SCANDAL, AND POOF
State Treasurer Velda Jones-Potter and 19th Senate District challenger Eric Bodenweiser don’t appear to have a lot in common: one is in office, while the other is not, one is a Democrat and the other Republican, one is a woman and the other a male, and one is African-American and the other Caucasian. What they have in common is an incident, which derailed their respective campaigns. Whether the coverage of Jones-Potter’s consulting work for the City of Wilmington or Bodenweiser’s brother’s disparaging comments about him were fair or not, they did enough damage to ensure the victory of challenger Chip Flowers in the Democratic primary for treasurer and incumbent Joseph Booth in the 19th senate district Republican Primary.
THE MOVEMENT VERSUS THE PARTY
After achieving primary election victories for several offices in several states, representatives of the Tea Party Express set their sights to Delaware. The momentum of the national phenomenon, combined with the endorsement of Sarah Palin, reversed O’Donnell’s foundering campaign in the U.S. Senate race and buttressed Glen Urquhart's position in the U.S. House race. Of course, both candidates eventually won their respective races, though Bodenweiser’s affiliation with an allied group did not produce the same result. The insurgent movement was viewed almost as a rival party by traditional Republicans, such that the question of whether Tea Party-backed candidates would be endorsed and assisted by the national and state Republican Party remained doubtful for two days after the election. But even as that part of the chasm was settled, the schism between old guard and new generation Republicans will take some time to heal. Meanwhile, the movement has pushed candidates further to the political right, leaving a dearth of moderates in both parties where candidates have been supported.
WITHER THE “DELAWARE WAY”?
The Republican contest for the U.S. Senate may have led the way, but was not the only race where a lack of civility was apparent. Personal insults were lodged against both candidates in the Senate campaign, not only by at least one of the candidates but by the Chairman of the Delaware Republican Party as well. Outsiders claiming Tea Party credentials likewise fed the negative frenzy. While such negativity is almost expected in other states and in general elections more than primaries, its presence so early in the process upset the longstanding image of Delaware politics as bipartisan and friendly. Not that anyone is predicting the demise of Delaware’s unique post-election Return Day, but someone want to be on hand to prevent the throwing rather than burying of the hatchet.
THE GOOD, THE BAD, AND THE FUTURE
Overall, there was a very positive and large turnout among Republicans in the 2010 primary. The 32 percent figure for the latter party’s turnout was almost triple that of Democrats and substantially above the 20 percent average turnout among both parties for this stage of the midterm election process. This outcome bodes well for the general election, when turnout is usually 20 points less than in presidential election years.
While both political parties in the state deserve kudos for getting their supporters out, the parties can be faulted for failing to field a full slate of candidates in all races. For instance, the Republicans could not find a challenger to Democratic Attorney General Beau Biden. Further, among the 41 State House seats up for election this year, 15 seats remained non-competitive between parties, while five of the 11 State Senate seats up for election had a similar lack of competition. This is most unfortunate, especially when some incumbents continue to win even though facing a voter registration disadvantage in their districts.
As for predicting the future, it has become more difficult with the surprising last minute developments, which befell Delaware during the primary period. For now, two things are certain. First, Michael Castle’s long, distinguished, and productive career representing Delaware citizens in the national legislature is over. Second, as Ms. O’Donnell’s victory demonstrated, every “dog catcher” has his or her day. However, the noise apparent from the five percent of the electorate who voted for her will soon be drowned out by the realities of blue state politics.
Dr. Samuel B. Hoff is George Washington Distinguished Professor of History and Political Science and Law Studies Director at Delaware State University.