Santa has been carrying a big bag of woe since 2008, when holiday retail sales fell into negative numbers for the first time in decades.
This year, retailers are working to rekindle the shopping spirit with such spectacular incentives as a $1 million giveaway to a lucky Black Friday shopper at Old Navy and a 32-inch flatscreen TV for $98 at Walmart, down from $148 last year.
But will shoppers put a jingle in merchant’s pockets?
The 2013 Holiday Retail Outlook published by S&P Capital IQ Equity Research, a New York-based analyst, projects a 2.5 percent increase, the weakest sales since the dismal 2008 season.
A survey by Edward Jones, the financial services firm, reports that more than a third -- 37 percent -- of Americans plan to spend less this holiday season than last year. Still, Edward Jones expects overall sales to rise 2.8 percent.
The view from Forney’s LTD on Loockerman Street in Dover is more cheerful. Toy trains are chugging merrily in the jewelry store window, a Black Friday tradition. Ami Leaming, a fourth-generation jeweler, plans to dazzle shoppers with promotions, interest-free lay-away, complimentary gift wrapping and a friendly smile.
“We are rolling out give-aways and handing out gingerbread,” she said. “The holidays are a very important time of year for us and we expect to do well because we make shopping with us a happy experience.”
Steve Chambliss, general manager of Christiana Mall, expects consumers will get in the holiday spirit and spend.
He notes that the International Council of Shopping Centers, an industry trade group, forecasts a 3.4 percent increase, “a bit better than last year.” Analysts at Wells Fargo predict a 3.7 percent boost.
And a survey by Accenture suggests a spike in spending, with consumers dedicating an average of $646 to gifts. That’s a whopping 11 percent increase over the $582 shoppers budgeted last year.
So why splurge? Among the big spenders, 41 percent said they and their loved ones deserve a treat after a hard year; 37 percent said they have more discretionary dollars to spend.
Gift cards were at the top of the shopping list, with 56 percent of consumers opting to give plastic. More than half -- 54 percent -- will buy clothing and accessories, 44 percent will purchase toys. Electronics are hot, too, with 39 percent of shoppers planning a purchase.
“There’s a new Xbox, a new PlayStation, new tablets and new smartphones this year,” Chambliss said. “We are expecting lots of demand for those products.”
Nearly nine of 10 shoppers -- 87 percent -- say they have problems finding the right gifts, according to a survey by Staples. But only 50 percent of male consumers worry about it, compared to 61 percent of women.
Shopping takes lots of time. Gift givers devote an average of four hours to hunting for each gift, the survey says. The typical female customer buys gifts for 11 people, while the guys shop for eight people.
Parents spend more, ringing up an average of $93 on presents for each recipient, compared to $68 for folks without kids. Overall, shoppers spend an average of $77 on each person on their gift lists.
Earlier this month, Target announced that profits in the third quarter tumbled 46 percent compared to the same quarter a week ago. The company said that was due, in part, to Halloween shoppers getting scared off by the federal sequestration.
Regarding holiday spending, Target CEO Gregg Steinhafel told investors and analysts he expects consumers to be “laser-focused on value.”
Surveys indicate bargain hunting is an engrained strategy for shoppers. In the Accenture report, nearly two-thirds of consumers -- 62 percent -- said it takes a discount of at least 30 percent off to get them to open their wallets. If the price drops further, 39 percent will return the item, then purchase it again at the deeper discount.
Consumers will compare prices both online and in brick-and-mortar stores. The survey says 65 percent will engage in “web-rooming,” the practice of browsing for goods online and then heading to stores to buy. Conversely, 63 percent will “showroom,” checking out the goods in stores, then scouring the Internet for the best deal.
Early shoppers will have the advantage of greater selection. Analysts note that is important because merchants will be keeping a sharp eye on inventory. That’s especially true for discounters who can avoid big markdowns by turning over goods quickly.
Jason Asaeda, an S&P Capital analyst, predicts merry sales for T.J. Maxx, Marshalls and HomeGoods, which offer brand names and big box locations that allow customers in a hurry to come and go quickly. All three are operated by TJX Cos., a Massachusetts-based discount giant.
"We look for the company, by operating its stores with lean inventories, to drive margin expansion through faster inventory turns and low markdowns," he said in a statement.
S&P Capital also expects Amazon will come out a winner by offering fast, free delivery and customer-friendly returns. GameStop will cash in on new PlayStation 4 and Xbox One video game consoles, as well as the loyal shoppers already participating in the retailer’s buy, sell or trade program.
At Five Below, where everything is priced at $5 or less, the chain for teens and tweens is growing along with the demand for bargains.
In the past year, the Ardmore, Pa.-based retailer relocated its North Wilmington store to a larger location in Concord Gallery on Route 202 and opened a new store on Kirkwood Highway.
“We see three trends emerging this year: tech, fashion, and toys and games,” said Liz Romaine, director of marketing.
Among the cheap thrills in those categories: colorful DJ-style headphones with pivoting ear cups and soft ear cushions; circular infinity scarves; and Wham-O remote control monster trucks, all priced at $5.
The retailer is targeting parents intent on bulking up the pile of presents under the tree without depleting their wallets. Five Below also appeals to the next generation of shoppers.
“Kids can spend their own money on a gift for a friend, a sibling, a teacher,” Romaine said.
If the stars do not align for retailers, blame the comet ISON, which will zip past the sun on Thanksgiving Day. This year’s shopping season also is the shortest possible span, a mere 26 days, an anomaly that hans’t occurred since 2002. In another twist, Black Friday and the first day of Hannukah fall on the same day.
At Forney’s, Leaming believes shoppers are more interested in customers service than comets or calendars. To that end, the store is joining other boutique retailers in the upcoming Small Business Saturday promotion, in which shoppers are encouraged to spend their dollars at local businesses.
American Express, which founded the promotion in 2010, said that 77 percent of consumers plan to patronize a small business this Saturday. To sweeten the deal, Amex is offering $10 back to cardholders who make a purchase at a participating merchant.
Forney’s is increasing accessibility to customers with extended hours, Monday through Saturday. But the doors will remain closed on Sundays.
“Never on Sunday,” Leaming said. “This is a family business and Sundays are for families.”