In many ways, 2010 turned out to be a surprising and unpredictable year. Will 2011 be any different? After asking a handful of political observers to reflect on the political year gone by and offer their analysis, DFM News asked that same panel to tell us what they’ll be keeping an eye on in the new year. Today, they weigh in with their thoughts, submitted via email, on the stories to watch in 2011.
[caption id="attachment_3635" align="alignnone" width="130" caption="Charlie Copeland"]https://www.wdde.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/copeland.jpg[/caption]
[caption id="attachment_3635" align="alignnone" width="130" caption="Chuck Durante"]https://www.wdde.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/chuck_durante.jpg[/caption]
[caption id="attachment_3636" align="alignnone" width="130" caption="John Flaherty"]https://www.wdde.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/flaherty.jpg[/caption]
[caption id="attachment_3637" align="alignnone" width="130" caption="Michael Fleming"]https://www.wdde.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/fleming.jpg[/caption]
[caption id="attachment_3647" align="alignnone" width="130" caption="Prof. Sam Hoff"]https://www.wdde.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/hoff.jpg[/caption]
Is there a story or two you’ll be watching with keen interest in 2011?
“In Delaware, the most important stories in 2011 will be the statewide legislative redistricting and any evidence of a local economic turn around. For the former, with a friendly Governor and veto-proof majorities in both the State House and State Senate, the Democrats have the ability to draw the political boundaries in the State to guarantee their Party total control for the next decade. The question is to what extent are their leaders willing to use (or abuse) their power for personal benefit or for the benefit of a competitive political environment.
As for the economy, Delaware's local business community is suffering and so is local employment. Delaware's actual unemployment, including those who have left the workforce or are underemployed, is about 15%. Without a significant pick up in employment, social problems, like the increasing violence in the City of Wilmington, will remain and grow."
—Charlie Copeland, former state senator and 2008 GOP candidate for Lt. Governor
“Reapportionment will be a fascinating process, with unpredictable results. As detailed census figures become public, the extent of the southward migration of the state’s population will become clear. Boundaries for legislation districts must change. The possibilities are plentiful.
There are two kinds of gerrymandering. One seeks to preserve incumbents, the other tries to stretch borders to entrench the dominant party. Since 1981, preservation of incumbents has been the goal – except in Wayne Smith’s 2002 map that led to the ouster of three incumbent House Democrats. When a single party last controlled all levers of state government during the reapportionment process, GOP strategists tried in 1971 to create a map that would yield an enduring Republican majority. A changing electorate, and setbacks to the Peterson and Nixon administrations, upset those expectations and the Democratic Party seized the House in the next election, and held it for the rest of the decade. (A post-election coup by some wobbling Republicans in 1972 switched the Senate as well.) Similar events over the last eight years have shriveled the Republican House contingent from 29 to 15.
We can expect some unfamiliar districts in 2012, some oddly-shaped, some necessary. (The City of Wilmington holds less than 9 percent of the state’s population, and will see the most visible changes.) Many legislators have expressed sympathy for long-time proposals, by Common Cause and League of Women Voters, to eliminate some of the blatant partisanship in the process. While partisan considerations will not fully abate, the past teaches that excessively aggressive designs can backfire."
—Chuck Durante, Attorney; Fmr. Parliamentarian, Delaware State Democratic Committee
“I will be watching the political dance of those Republicans seeking the nomination of their party for President as well as how the Republican Party intends to accommodate and assimilate the interests of the various Tea Party factions around the country.”
—John Flaherty, Delaware Coalition for Open Government president
“Several stories are worth watching in 2011, beginning with the special election in January to elect a president of New Castle County Council – will voters stay with a troubled status quo or will they vote to bring reform and accountability to county government? And where are things headed with the continuing cloud of conflict surrounding County Executive Paul Clark? I’ll also be following the launch (or not) of a new top-flight UD law school and the perilous financial prospects of the city of Wilmington. Lastly, but by no means least importantly, our beloved Fighting Blue Hens will head to Texas to claim the National Championship once again. After they win, with big-time college football riches likely to be dangled, a question for all UD fans is: will K.C. stay?"
—Michael Fleming, New Castle County Republican Party chair
“Two stories in particular bear close watching during 2011. First, the decline in revenue forecasts combined with the loss of stimulus funds portend a difficult budget period ahead. Maybe the General Assembly will pay more attention to Governor Markell’s proposed spending reductions in 2011. Second, the infighting within the state Democratic party which led to the narrow reelection of Sen. Anthony DeLuca as President Pro Tempore cast a pall on an otherwise outstanding midterm election cycle for Democrats. It will be interesting to observe whether there is any residue from the latter leadership fight and how it impacts the majority party."
—Sam Hoff, Delaware State University political science professor