A weekend survey of likely voters in the Delaware Republican primary for U.S. Senate suggests that an underdog could topple the state party’s endorsed candidate. The poll, by Public Policy Polling, shows Christine O’Donnell ahead of nine-term congressman Mike Castle by 3 points, a spread within the margin of error. But does one poll really reflect political reality?
“I think we can be pretty confident of our results here in Delaware, though it is still too close to call,” said Dustin Ingalls, assistant director of Public Policy Polling. “As of now, it looks like Christine O'Donnell has surged into the lead."
David, Wilson, an assistant professor of political science and international relations at the University of Delaware, does not draw conclusions from the poll. “OK, interesting information, but [the pollsters] are not ready to say anything other than it is probably close among whatever population they studied.”
Public Policy Polling asked 668 likely Republican primary voters about those races. The results show the O’Donnell-Castle race at 47 to 44 percent in favor of O’Donnell, with 8 percent undecided.
Wilson points to the number of undecideds and the high percentage of “not sure” responses to other poll questions on favorability and fitness for office as reasons to be skeptical. "All of these unsures are going to go somewhere on Election Day, in theory. That says these numbers are more muddled than they appear,” said Professor Wilson. "I would take the findings that Public Policy Polling gave as what they found, and not come to any conclusion."
Ingalls downplays the significance of the undecideds. “About 8 percent undecided in the horse race, that's not really that large. You'll find that in any race, particularly primaries, where you're never sure exactly who will turn out. But I don't think it's unusually high.”
Telling or not, a late poll like this one can have an impact on the race. "This is exactly why there is a danger in trying to make predictions with polls,” Wilson said. “This comes out, and maybe Castle supporters get mobilized to go vote. Maybe O'Donnell supporters get demobilized because they think she is going to win, or they get mobilized because they think she needs their help to push her over the edge."
The O’Donnell campaign clearly is concerned that the poll might have a negative impact. It put out a Twitter message shortly after the poll was released saying, "Be wary of polling. All we know is we're within the margin of error. It's not over."
A similar dynamic exists in the Republican primary for Delaware’s lone U.S. House seat, the seat Castle is leaving to run for Senate. Public Policy Polling's weekend survey shows Glen Urquhart, who entered the race as a virtual unknown, leading the party endorsed candidate, Michele Rollins, by 12 percentage points—50 to 38 percent, with 9 percent undecided.
"I think we are seeing similar things in that race as well,” says Ingalls.
And much like the O’Donnell campaign, the Urquhart campaign is urging its supporters to not put too much stock in its apparent lead. In an email to supporters, Urquhart’s communications director, David Anderson, noted, “We know the only poll that counts is Tuesday. These numbers will energize our supporters and we will be redoubling our efforts to bring out our vote.”
“Turnout is the name of the game," Wilson said, noting that older voters are typically more likely to turn out than younger ones. He looks at the Public Policy Polling numbers and says its hard to project how that dynamic may play out this time, based on the way the poll looks at voter age. “One of the things I saw in the data is, if you are 64 or older, you are more likely to support Castle,” said Wilson. "The age groups are problematic. If you say, 'What about 55 and over?'—the group most likely to vote—that becomes the core group that we have no way of looking at."
Ingalls suggests there’s a different demographic to watch. "The people who are really motivated to vote in primaries tend to be the Tea Party conservatives this year,” Ingalls said. “If they are the ones who turn out, then O'Donnell should have a victory. If they are more likely to show up at rallies or answer polls than to vote, then Castle could still win, but we will see on Tuesday."