Hurricane season officially starts today and federal officials expect an active one in the Atlantic this year.
The forecast predicts 2-4 major hurricanes, 5-9 minor hurricanes and 11-17 named storms between now and the end of the season in November.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says long-range forecasts show a mix of perfect conditions that tropical storms and hurricanes love.
“Warmer water provides more fuel to the hurricanes, and at the same time, when the tropical Atlantic is warmer than average, typically the trade winds are weaker than average and overall, the whole set of conditions that allow for more hurricanes to form…is more in place,” said Gerry Bell, NOAA’s chief seasonal hurricane forecaster.
Bell says a strong El Niño from the Pacific could have helped tamp down those storms, but current models predict a weak showing this summer – meaning the Atlantic won’t get any help from out west.
High wind speeds from the low to upper atmosphere can also shear off the tops of storm systems, mitigating or disrupting them entirely.
But Bell says those winds are expected to be calm over the next few months.
Ben Friedman, NOAA’s acting director, says that means families should freshen up their preparedness kits or create emergency plans if they haven’t done so.
“The most dangerous part of a storm is not the wind, it’s not the rain, it’s the flooding and the storm surge that occurs afterwards so we need to be prepared for all of that in the upcoming season,” Friedman said.
A basic emergency preparedness kit should include:
· A gallon of water per person per day
· A non-perishable, three-day supply of food. Include a can opener if setting aside canned food
· First aid kit
· Copies of important documents inside a waterproof container
· Any medications needed
· A full change of clothes
The agency says a new satellite and forecasting models should help provide more accurate forecasts before storms develop and track their path in the Atlantic.
You can find more preparedness tips at www.preparede.org
