This story has been updated with new numbers that reflect updated weighting by UD's Center for Political Communication. The previous numbers were incorrectly weighted.
New election polling data reveals Democratic candidates continue to be the heavy favorite in all of the major statewide races ahead of the November General Election.
The survey from the University of Delaware's Center for Political Communication interviewed an online sample of 400 registered voters from Delaware in September and found Democratic candidates are being boosted by a large gender gap in vote preference and strong support from Independent voters.
In the presidential race, 56% say they will back Vice President Kamala Harris, with 36% voting for former President Donald Trump.
For U.S. Senate, 52% plan to vote for Democrat Lisa Blunt Rochester, and 32% for Republican Eric Hansen.
For U.S. House, 52% support Democrat Sarah McBride, 31% Republican John Whalen.
In the Governor’s race, 51% back Democrat Matt Meyer, with 32% choosing Republican Mike Ramone.
When solely looking at registered Independents in Delaware, voters are leaning toward Democratic candidates, even in a race with an Independent-backed candidate.
Support for major party candidates among Delaware Independents
Delaware's U.S. Senate race also includes Independent Mike Katz, a former Democratic state senator, but data shows he is only receiving 6.1% of the vote.
Director of the Center for Political Communication at the University of Delaware Danna Young says the number of Independent voters in the U.S. has increased substantially over the past 20 years.
"[But] when you drill down, Independents usually aren't actually Independent — they do tend to lean towards one party or another," Young explained. "And so I think in an election like this where the issue positions are quite distinct between the two major parties — where the platforms are quite distinct — I think unless you are truly an Independent voter through and through, you're going to be reluctant to put your vote behind an unlikely winner."
The poll also shows a significant gender gap in Delaware, with women voters supporting the Democrats at higher rates than men.
The gap between women’s and men’s support for the leading candidates ranges from 12 points in the U.S. House race, 13 points in the Governor race and 22 points in the U.S. Senate race.
In the presidential race, 65% of women and 44% of men support Harris, a 21 percentage point gender gap.
Support for leading candidates among women and men
This Delaware gender gap is slightly bigger than trends in nationwide polling, and while Young says some people may be inclined to assume with strong female candidates on the ballot, like Harris, Blunt Rochester and McBride, that perhaps there's an identity factor driving women to vote for women.
"[But] I would push back against that a bit because we're looking at a climate in which among women and Democratic women, the issue of abortion and reproductive rights is so central, and I think when you look at those issues, even independent of party, those are issues that women tend to be A) more interested in and B) breaking towards a more progressive position on those issues."
When asked how important prominent policy issue are to each voter, 88% said the economy was either the most important issue or a very important issue. 69% said the same about abortion; 66% about immigration.
How voters rated the importance of difference issues
"This is, this is actually a place where Delaware looks just like the country," Young said. "It's interesting, especially given that some of the concrete measures of economic performance are improving. But of course, it takes a while for people to either feel that, or if they do feel it personally, to perceive that that is a trend."
Among those who said immigration was the most important issue to their vote, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris 60% to 29%. For those who said abortion was the most important issue, the trend is reversed: Harris leads 79% to 15%.
Friday, the Democratic National Committee announced $15,000 in funding to the Delaware Democratic Party along with investments to dozens of other states.
The investment will go toward getting out the vote to ensure Blunt Rochester wins the open U.S. Senate seat and that McBride is elected to Congress.
“I want to thank the DNC and Chair Harrison for their recent investment in Delaware. Our local legislative races are a priority for Delaware Democrats. We have an opportunity to elect a Democratic supermajority in our State House this year and the DNC’s investment has helped ease the path,” said Delaware Democratic Party Chair Betsy Maron. The National Committee’s recognition of the importance of strong Democratic State Legislatures and their ability to turn our party’s platform into policy guarantees that our candidates have the support they need, regardless of ballot placement.”
